Venture Capital
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Two standards, not one scorecard
An operating expense question
The AI a portfolio company uses to run itself, an operating expense. Ask who owns it, what it costs against plan, and whether its use is approved and governed.
A cost of goods and margin question
The AI inside what the company sells, a cost of goods. Ask for cost per customer or workflow, margin trajectory with the method shown, and experiments kept apart.
The questions you face
EVIDENCE FROM THE BENCHMARK DATABASE
46.9% of enterprises ran over budget on AI
· The Futurum Group
46.9% of enterprises reported running over budget on AI, against 31.8% approximately in line with budget and only 5.6% below plan
Only 17.2% of over-budget organizations pause or reduce the AI initiative
· Techstrong.ai
Among enterprises over budget on AI, only 17.2% pause or reduce the AI initiative itself, while 48% request additional budget and 43% absorb the overrun and settle it later
61% cut external contractors and consultants to fund AI overruns
· Techstrong.ai
Organizations over budget on AI fund the gap by cutting elsewhere: 61% reduce external contractors and consultants, 60% cut IT support and helpdesk, 58% cut software and application development, and 23% reallocate from a non-IT business unit budget
10% have no formal AI budget and 5.6% do not know where their AI spend stands
· The Futurum Group
10% of enterprises have no formal AI budget to measure spending against and a further 5.6% do not know where their AI spending stands, meaning roughly one in six cannot say whether they are over or under budget
US$795 billion of 2026 hyperscaler capex rising to nearly US$1.08 trillion in 2027
· Reuters (via Investing.com)
Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms and Oracle are expected to spend a combined US$795 billion on capital expenditure in 2026, rising to nearly US$1.08 trillion in 2027, against total AI spending of nearly US$800 billion in 2026
42% would expand existing AI workloads if token prices fell 25% or more
· CIO Dive
42% of surveyed executives said they would expand existing AI workloads if token prices fell 25% or more, while only about 10% of workloads need advanced frontier-level reasoning
Your playbook
The diligence questions a fund should ask
Ten questions about AI cost and margin, with what a good answer looks like from the founder’s side.
The 2-minute check
Ten questions. Every "I don't know" is a finding.
No email needed. The first five are written for your role. The last five are the same for everyone.
[ 1 ]
How many portfolio companies are in scope?
[ 2 ]
How many of them are AI-native?
[ 3 ]
Does your diligence template ask for AI cost per customer?
[ 4 ]
What AI margin reporting arrives from portfolio companies today?
[ 5 ]
Has a portfolio company already had an AI cost incident?
[ 6 ]
Do you know what your AI features and tools cost last month, in dollars?
[ 7 ]
Have you had a surprise AI bill or usage spike in the last six months?
[ 8 ]
Does the AI spend number on your dashboard tie to your actual provider invoices?
[ 9 ]
If a team, an app or a customer account went over budget today, would anything alert you?
[ 10 ]
Is AI cost showing up in your board decks, security questionnaires or diligence requests yet?